A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Both authors two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates range over national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win here and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses something to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
