Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, political struggles are fought: hopeful statements are released from multiple capitals. Immense energy is devoted on containing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from enemy soil, a ability afforded by current data. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to intercept incoming aerial threats streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense activated: defensive missiles deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably supplied through Western nations. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly gives way to sober acceptance: possibly the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from ruin and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – probably Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its destination.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: multiple fatalities, destruction and heating outages in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a dependence that regional partners are demonstrably unable to substitute in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from American leadership sparked intense emotion, controversy and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new proposal from American administration follows the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration functions according to a principle familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration assumes that it is impossible to force Russia to abandon the land that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the situation will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing people and territory but preventing a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to terminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new plans based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, mainly require sustained allied backing.
